Controversy and confusion. Complaints about the BCS. It must be Bowl Season. The Ducks will take on ....Texas Tech. Back to the Holiday Bowl.
Bring out your abacus, this is going to be a shoot out.
Prediction:
Texas Tech boasts a high flying offense. Between Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, this team will put points up in bundles. And for the first time, they have a decent defense too. Texas Tech will be pushing all season long to win the Big 12, but due to Missouri playing in the North and TTU having to take on Texas, Oklahoma and company, this is always a tough schedule.
This game will be great to watch. U of O's secondary vs the air attack of TTU. The U of O secondary will be ready for this spread out game and Tech won't have faced a secondary of this talent level.
The question every year is if Tech's D can hold the other team to fewer points than their offense. This is the year it may be possible. But those conventional, predictable offenses in the Big 12 won't prepare them for Oregon. Mike Leech is an offensive genius, but he'll need help on the other side.
Oregon will play its game, with a few trick plays to keep things interesting. Oregon's offense will be too much for Texas Tech and the D will hold....enough to pull out the victory.
After big games from Jamere Holland and J-Will, it'll be Oregon's air attack that gets the attention.
Score: UO 51 - TT 40
It'll be fun to watch.
With only a few days to go, I am going to just sit back and watch. I can't believe the season is almost here. It has felt like forever.
- Berns
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol VI)
Game 11
Things have changed, but I am not going back on my picks. Where it once said Costa, insert Roper. I'd go back, but I don't have that kind of time and until I get complaints, I'm fine leaving it as is. Oh also discovered today, Justin Thompson will be joining the team. This could be huge for filling that hole in the middle.
But on to Arizona. This damn team has been known to take out our QB's. Now it was the ASU game, Dixon first went down, but it was UA that he stayed down. Like Clemens! Now it's payback.
In Arizona's Favor
Arizona has a spread out offense with a QB that can throw. Mike Thomas is a first-team all pac-10 player, but not quite the gamebreaker to take over a game. The running back is decent, but not someone who will likely take over. This is a team that will put up points. They will put the pressure on early and keep pushing. At this point they may already have 6 or 7 wins, ensuring a bowl game, which is all Stoops may need to save his job. So this game may just be the icing on the cake for zona.
The wildcats had a good defense last year. They made Brady Leaf look like a JV player and when J-Stew became the only option, he was basically taken out of the game. But gone are their stud CB in Cason and MLB (name I can't remember). They won't be great, but they will try to out score you and hope the D does enough to not let you outscore them.
In Oregon's Favor
Revenge. The team that originally derailed your season sits in your mind. It is payback time. The game is in Autzen and it is time to put it to the wildcats. Plus it is always great to see Stoops blow a gasket on the sidelines. Oregon's Offense will be able to move against Arizona. This years Zona team isn't going to be anywhere near the level of last years team. I think Oregon moves the ball and puts up points.
Air-Zona, as they are being called this year, are going to be passing the ball. If the Ducks can keep the wildcats to a one-dimension offense, then this game will be won by the ducks. In the past 4 seasons the wildcats have been tough games for the ducks. They are always scary, but I think that this year will be a solid win.
Prediction: UO 41 - UA 30
Game 12
Civil War time! This game is big. Last year the home winning streak was broken. Back to Reser.
The thing about this game is that it is always big. Its a rivalry. It doesn't matter if the teams both have losing records or vastly different records, this game matters. Its bragging rights for the years. The Huskies may be the more hated rivalry, but this one is the in-state rivalry. Its the one you get to brag about to your Beaver brother or beaver cousin.
In the Beaver's Favor
Every year OSU loses a pre-season game they shouldn't and then in conference they upset one of the top tiered teams. The Beavs always come on strong. It is rare that the beavers start and stay in the top 25 all season. They have been ending up there, but after falling out.
The Beavs have a QB that wins. Moevao knows how to win. He won't win the heisman, but he can win a game. That's pretty important. Mike Riley does a great job with lesser talent. He has speed and utilizes strengths. This time of the year OSU can beat just about anyone in the past few years.
The game is in Reser and I have a feeling the Beavs will need to win this game to make a bowl game or stay out of the toilet bowl game.
In Oregon's Favor
They need to get this one back. 2 years in a row. I have a feeling this game will be the difference of Sun and Holiday Bowl for the Ducks. Oh and did I mention its a rivalry. There is a lot riding on this game.
Who knows what the QB situation will be, but the rest of the team, assuming no injuries will be "predictable." What I mean is that we know what we will be getting. A good running back behind a great line. A livable passing game and a solid to great defense. The X-factor is the Beavs play. With a whole new front 7 they could struggle. But by this time they may have come together. The secondary is supposed to be good, but who knows?
The key to the game is to play Ducks football and make up for last year.
Prediction: UO 31 - OSU 24
This is going to be a battle. It'll be cold and this game will matter a lot to both teams, as mentioned above. The Beavs will start out hot and take a 14 - 0 lead. But just like last year coming into half time, the Ducks will be on their way back. But this time, they won't fold. It won't come down to multiple field goals. It will be Oregon trying to keep the Beavs out of the end-zone. The seniors will play up for this one. JJ, J-Will, P-Chung, Unger and Reed will put their mark on this game.
Bowl Game prediction.......Next
Things have changed, but I am not going back on my picks. Where it once said Costa, insert Roper. I'd go back, but I don't have that kind of time and until I get complaints, I'm fine leaving it as is. Oh also discovered today, Justin Thompson will be joining the team. This could be huge for filling that hole in the middle.
But on to Arizona. This damn team has been known to take out our QB's. Now it was the ASU game, Dixon first went down, but it was UA that he stayed down. Like Clemens! Now it's payback.
In Arizona's Favor
Arizona has a spread out offense with a QB that can throw. Mike Thomas is a first-team all pac-10 player, but not quite the gamebreaker to take over a game. The running back is decent, but not someone who will likely take over. This is a team that will put up points. They will put the pressure on early and keep pushing. At this point they may already have 6 or 7 wins, ensuring a bowl game, which is all Stoops may need to save his job. So this game may just be the icing on the cake for zona.
The wildcats had a good defense last year. They made Brady Leaf look like a JV player and when J-Stew became the only option, he was basically taken out of the game. But gone are their stud CB in Cason and MLB (name I can't remember). They won't be great, but they will try to out score you and hope the D does enough to not let you outscore them.
In Oregon's Favor
Revenge. The team that originally derailed your season sits in your mind. It is payback time. The game is in Autzen and it is time to put it to the wildcats. Plus it is always great to see Stoops blow a gasket on the sidelines. Oregon's Offense will be able to move against Arizona. This years Zona team isn't going to be anywhere near the level of last years team. I think Oregon moves the ball and puts up points.
Air-Zona, as they are being called this year, are going to be passing the ball. If the Ducks can keep the wildcats to a one-dimension offense, then this game will be won by the ducks. In the past 4 seasons the wildcats have been tough games for the ducks. They are always scary, but I think that this year will be a solid win.
Prediction: UO 41 - UA 30
Game 12
Civil War time! This game is big. Last year the home winning streak was broken. Back to Reser.
The thing about this game is that it is always big. Its a rivalry. It doesn't matter if the teams both have losing records or vastly different records, this game matters. Its bragging rights for the years. The Huskies may be the more hated rivalry, but this one is the in-state rivalry. Its the one you get to brag about to your Beaver brother or beaver cousin.
In the Beaver's Favor
Every year OSU loses a pre-season game they shouldn't and then in conference they upset one of the top tiered teams. The Beavs always come on strong. It is rare that the beavers start and stay in the top 25 all season. They have been ending up there, but after falling out.
The Beavs have a QB that wins. Moevao knows how to win. He won't win the heisman, but he can win a game. That's pretty important. Mike Riley does a great job with lesser talent. He has speed and utilizes strengths. This time of the year OSU can beat just about anyone in the past few years.
The game is in Reser and I have a feeling the Beavs will need to win this game to make a bowl game or stay out of the toilet bowl game.
In Oregon's Favor
They need to get this one back. 2 years in a row. I have a feeling this game will be the difference of Sun and Holiday Bowl for the Ducks. Oh and did I mention its a rivalry. There is a lot riding on this game.
Who knows what the QB situation will be, but the rest of the team, assuming no injuries will be "predictable." What I mean is that we know what we will be getting. A good running back behind a great line. A livable passing game and a solid to great defense. The X-factor is the Beavs play. With a whole new front 7 they could struggle. But by this time they may have come together. The secondary is supposed to be good, but who knows?
The key to the game is to play Ducks football and make up for last year.
Prediction: UO 31 - OSU 24
This is going to be a battle. It'll be cold and this game will matter a lot to both teams, as mentioned above. The Beavs will start out hot and take a 14 - 0 lead. But just like last year coming into half time, the Ducks will be on their way back. But this time, they won't fold. It won't come down to multiple field goals. It will be Oregon trying to keep the Beavs out of the end-zone. The seniors will play up for this one. JJ, J-Will, P-Chung, Unger and Reed will put their mark on this game.
Bowl Game prediction.......Next
Monday, August 25, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol V)
Game 9
Its time to play those Bay Area teams. Cal comes first. Cal has been a tough team in the past few years. 2007 in Autzen, Cal won by 6 inches. 2006, Oregon was over matched and Cal put a beat down on in Berkley and in 2005 Oregon won after Clemens went down in a great over time game.
In Cal's Favor
Oregon has not had success in the bay, against Cal. Tedford always has a game plan and always seems like he has something to prove against Bellotti, who formerly worked together at Oregon. Cal lost a lot of talent from last year, but also returns plenty.
On offense, there are several questions, but people who can answer. Javid Best could be great. He is fast, smart and makes things happen. He has some injury history, but if he can stay on the field will be solid. Nate Longshore has had success, but isn't really making everybody feel too comfortable about this situation. Alex Mack may be the best center in the nation. The point of this all, is that they will put points on the board. They may lack the play-makers of past like Jackson or Lynch, but they will score.
On D the bears have one of the better linebacking cores in the nation. I am a big believer, that the LBs make the team. They stop the run, help in coverage and everything in between. They are the center mid-fielders of the defense. (had to use a soccer reference). The rest of their defense has some questions, not due to talent but experience. Similar to the offense this team will be good, but they aren't going to lead the nation in many categories.
In Oregon's Favor
This week I have a whole new view. I could go back and update past posts, but its not worth it and is bad Karma. Nate Costa's knee will make a difference in where this team is. I have confidence in Roper, but his quickness is what concerns me.
Oregon's offense will be fine. They have a talented back field and enough play-makers on the outside, that teams can't stack the box. Just as Cal, they will put points. No matter who is at QB, the team will start hitting their stride and making it difficult for teams to keep up.
On D Oregon will be good. Oregon does have one of the best all around defenses in the nation. If they stay healthy and the younger players can step up when they come in, Oregon will be good.
Prediction: UO 31 - Cal 34
This is a tough one to call. I really think that Oregon has the better team, but the way games have gone in Berkley make me question this one. I think that this game will come down to capitalizing on mistakes. And I think, just like 2007, Oregon will give something up at the wrong time. (i really hate going against Oregon)....I hope I am wrong about this game.
Game 10
The ducks are sitting 7-2 going into this game against Stanford. They will still be sitting in the top 25, but opposing fans will start to mention the collapses of years past. But Stanford couldn't come in at a worse time.
In Stanford's Favor
They aren't expected to win. Stanford can lose by 30 and it won't be questioned. But if they keep it close or god forbid win, its above and beyond expectations. The USC victory was as big as it gets last year.
In terms of the team, Stanford has good linebackers. Not relative to how team normally is, but in relation to the rest of the conference. As I mentioned against Cal, LB's are important. But in Stanford's case, they will need more than that.
I think Harbaugh is a great coach. He can recruit, makes bold statements, makes his players better and every once in a while puts it together and surprises the country.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon just loss to Cal and are pissed. It's also in Autzen. I think this game is over at half time. There is always that fear of the loss hangover and not concentrating on a lesser opponent. And as Oregon has recently been falling apart at the end of the year, this is again the thought in everyones mind. Not this year.
Oregon's offense plays great. Jaison Williams will break a record during this game. Not sure which one, but an Oregon receiving record will be broken. The rest of the O will play well and Oregon will put points on that new scoreboard.
On D, expect the secondary to by flying and the Dline reeking havoc in the backfield. This one will only get closer when Oregon starts to take it foot off the gas at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Prediction: UO 48 - Stanford 23
Oregon will maintain their confidence going into the last two Conference games of the season.
Coming up Game 11 (vz Arizona) and Game 12 (vs OSU)....
Its time to play those Bay Area teams. Cal comes first. Cal has been a tough team in the past few years. 2007 in Autzen, Cal won by 6 inches. 2006, Oregon was over matched and Cal put a beat down on in Berkley and in 2005 Oregon won after Clemens went down in a great over time game.
In Cal's Favor
Oregon has not had success in the bay, against Cal. Tedford always has a game plan and always seems like he has something to prove against Bellotti, who formerly worked together at Oregon. Cal lost a lot of talent from last year, but also returns plenty.
On offense, there are several questions, but people who can answer. Javid Best could be great. He is fast, smart and makes things happen. He has some injury history, but if he can stay on the field will be solid. Nate Longshore has had success, but isn't really making everybody feel too comfortable about this situation. Alex Mack may be the best center in the nation. The point of this all, is that they will put points on the board. They may lack the play-makers of past like Jackson or Lynch, but they will score.
On D the bears have one of the better linebacking cores in the nation. I am a big believer, that the LBs make the team. They stop the run, help in coverage and everything in between. They are the center mid-fielders of the defense. (had to use a soccer reference). The rest of their defense has some questions, not due to talent but experience. Similar to the offense this team will be good, but they aren't going to lead the nation in many categories.
In Oregon's Favor
This week I have a whole new view. I could go back and update past posts, but its not worth it and is bad Karma. Nate Costa's knee will make a difference in where this team is. I have confidence in Roper, but his quickness is what concerns me.
Oregon's offense will be fine. They have a talented back field and enough play-makers on the outside, that teams can't stack the box. Just as Cal, they will put points. No matter who is at QB, the team will start hitting their stride and making it difficult for teams to keep up.
On D Oregon will be good. Oregon does have one of the best all around defenses in the nation. If they stay healthy and the younger players can step up when they come in, Oregon will be good.
Prediction: UO 31 - Cal 34
This is a tough one to call. I really think that Oregon has the better team, but the way games have gone in Berkley make me question this one. I think that this game will come down to capitalizing on mistakes. And I think, just like 2007, Oregon will give something up at the wrong time. (i really hate going against Oregon)....I hope I am wrong about this game.
Game 10
The ducks are sitting 7-2 going into this game against Stanford. They will still be sitting in the top 25, but opposing fans will start to mention the collapses of years past. But Stanford couldn't come in at a worse time.
In Stanford's Favor
They aren't expected to win. Stanford can lose by 30 and it won't be questioned. But if they keep it close or god forbid win, its above and beyond expectations. The USC victory was as big as it gets last year.
In terms of the team, Stanford has good linebackers. Not relative to how team normally is, but in relation to the rest of the conference. As I mentioned against Cal, LB's are important. But in Stanford's case, they will need more than that.
I think Harbaugh is a great coach. He can recruit, makes bold statements, makes his players better and every once in a while puts it together and surprises the country.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon just loss to Cal and are pissed. It's also in Autzen. I think this game is over at half time. There is always that fear of the loss hangover and not concentrating on a lesser opponent. And as Oregon has recently been falling apart at the end of the year, this is again the thought in everyones mind. Not this year.
Oregon's offense plays great. Jaison Williams will break a record during this game. Not sure which one, but an Oregon receiving record will be broken. The rest of the O will play well and Oregon will put points on that new scoreboard.
On D, expect the secondary to by flying and the Dline reeking havoc in the backfield. This one will only get closer when Oregon starts to take it foot off the gas at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Prediction: UO 48 - Stanford 23
Oregon will maintain their confidence going into the last two Conference games of the season.
Coming up Game 11 (vz Arizona) and Game 12 (vs OSU)....
Friday, August 22, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol IV)
Game 7
It's back to Autzen after a loss to the Trojans. Every loss hurts, but this one will motivate the Ducks as they enter the rest of the PAC-10 schedule. In the PAC-10 anything can happen. Oregon teams of the past have folded after a loss or two and let the season get out of hand. Not this year. The Bruins are up next.
In the Bruin's Favor
The Bruins have had awful luck with their QB's, which is becoming a bad trend in the PAC-10 the last few years. First it was Pat Cowan, injured and out for the season and then it was Ben Olsen out for two months. JC transfer Kevin Craft will be taking the reigns...most likely. But with new head coach Rick Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Norm Chow this team will be OK. Chow is one of the better OCs in the country.
UCLA have a respectable offense. No one jumps out at you, but their weaknesses aren't too overwhelming. This team will be able to put up some points and make most games a battle. The offense is the strong point.
The defense for UCLA won't be quite as strong as last year. Losing 3 starters in the secondary is never easy in the "pass happy" PAC-10. Reggie Carter is their star MLB. Everything will run through and around him. He won't make this the best D in the conference, but he won't let them be the worse either. The D-line is solid, which won't allow Oregon to run all over them as other teams.
In Oregon's Favor
This will be a test for Oregon. There is plenty of veteran leadership, but it will be important to see how the QB bounces back. (not a senior QB on the roster...or a junior) Coming back to Autzen always helps.
The key to this game will be limiting mistakes and letting the game just happen. If Costa can control the game and not try to take it over, but use the skill players around him, Oregon will win. On paper Oregon is a better team. I think this game will feel close, but the score won't entirely reflect that.
The defense will be hitting their stride. It won't be a perfect game, but the defense will be playing as one and not give up much. The "bend, don't break" D of last year will be gone. And it will be more of a "don't budge" D. This will be one of the more aggressive defenses Oregon has had and will be attacking, hitting and forcing lesser teams into mistakes.
Prediction: UO 34 - UCLA 17
Oregon will play a very balanced attack. 250 in the air 250 on the ground. The key players will play like stars. Jaison Williams, JJ, Ed Dickson and Costa. Chung will make his presence felt and Oregon will role into their bye week and begin preparation for Arizona State.
Game 8
This game could be for the Rose Bowl. Or the Holiday bowl, more likely. But the point is this game is big. ASU and Oregon have been picked by many to finish 2nd in the conference. This game is for all the marbles...that don't include USC. But if another Stanford happens to USC, one of these teams may have a chance to step in and take advantage.
In Arizona State's Favor
Home field advantage and Rudy Carpenter. The Ducks have done a great job putting this guy in check, but he is the best QB in the conference. Jake Locker is the most dynamic, but Carpenter is the best. The problem Carpenter has faced is a poor O-line giving up the most sacks in the conference of 55 last year. This shouldn't happen again, but there isn't a lot saying that they will be amazing. In addition to Carpenter, the top three receivers return, as well a potential RB stud Keegan Herring. (I think Keegan is a bit over-hyped, but we'll see.)
Dennis Erickson is a great coach and has notoriously had great second years with his collegiate teams. This plays into the Sun Devils favor.
The defense will be solid. Luis Vasquez and Dexter Davis are two of the best D-ends in the league. They will put pressure on the ball and force mistakes. The secondary is capable of taking advantage of these mistakes.
In Oregon's Favor
Here is the big one. Mike Bellotti holds a 12-1 record following a bye week. Oregon will be ready for this game. Last year after the bye week, Wazzu was hammered by the ducks. But this isn't Wazzu. This team will be in the top 25 and maybe higher if they manage to beat Georgia.
In the last three years against ASU, Oregon QBs have played very well and Jaison Williams has had his better games. Lets keep this trend up. Expect Chris Harper to be a part of this game plan. Chip Kelly will devise packages that won't have been seen before, involving Harper. I don't think Oregon
The D will have a game plan to put pressure on Carpenter. Carpenter will make plays, because that's what he does, but the Ducks have the returning sack leader from last year, Nick Reed. Will Tukuafu isn't too bad himself. And as mentioned over and over again, the secondary won't allow Carpenter to play pitch and catch with his receivers all day.
Big players, show up on big games.
Prediction: UO 34 - ASU 30
This one will be close. Big plays, momentum swings, mistakes and capitalizing. This may be the game that you remember all year long. If it weren't for the bye week I don't know if I could pick Oregon.
Give the game ball to Patrick Chung. For anyone who doesn't know who Patrick Chung is at this point in the season will know after this game.
7-1, 2nd in the PAC-10 and sneaking into the top 10 in the country.
Coming up Game 9 (vs Cal) and Game 10 (vs Stanford)...
It's back to Autzen after a loss to the Trojans. Every loss hurts, but this one will motivate the Ducks as they enter the rest of the PAC-10 schedule. In the PAC-10 anything can happen. Oregon teams of the past have folded after a loss or two and let the season get out of hand. Not this year. The Bruins are up next.
In the Bruin's Favor
The Bruins have had awful luck with their QB's, which is becoming a bad trend in the PAC-10 the last few years. First it was Pat Cowan, injured and out for the season and then it was Ben Olsen out for two months. JC transfer Kevin Craft will be taking the reigns...most likely. But with new head coach Rick Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Norm Chow this team will be OK. Chow is one of the better OCs in the country.
UCLA have a respectable offense. No one jumps out at you, but their weaknesses aren't too overwhelming. This team will be able to put up some points and make most games a battle. The offense is the strong point.
The defense for UCLA won't be quite as strong as last year. Losing 3 starters in the secondary is never easy in the "pass happy" PAC-10. Reggie Carter is their star MLB. Everything will run through and around him. He won't make this the best D in the conference, but he won't let them be the worse either. The D-line is solid, which won't allow Oregon to run all over them as other teams.
In Oregon's Favor
This will be a test for Oregon. There is plenty of veteran leadership, but it will be important to see how the QB bounces back. (not a senior QB on the roster...or a junior) Coming back to Autzen always helps.
The key to this game will be limiting mistakes and letting the game just happen. If Costa can control the game and not try to take it over, but use the skill players around him, Oregon will win. On paper Oregon is a better team. I think this game will feel close, but the score won't entirely reflect that.
The defense will be hitting their stride. It won't be a perfect game, but the defense will be playing as one and not give up much. The "bend, don't break" D of last year will be gone. And it will be more of a "don't budge" D. This will be one of the more aggressive defenses Oregon has had and will be attacking, hitting and forcing lesser teams into mistakes.
Prediction: UO 34 - UCLA 17
Oregon will play a very balanced attack. 250 in the air 250 on the ground. The key players will play like stars. Jaison Williams, JJ, Ed Dickson and Costa. Chung will make his presence felt and Oregon will role into their bye week and begin preparation for Arizona State.
Game 8
This game could be for the Rose Bowl. Or the Holiday bowl, more likely. But the point is this game is big. ASU and Oregon have been picked by many to finish 2nd in the conference. This game is for all the marbles...that don't include USC. But if another Stanford happens to USC, one of these teams may have a chance to step in and take advantage.
In Arizona State's Favor
Home field advantage and Rudy Carpenter. The Ducks have done a great job putting this guy in check, but he is the best QB in the conference. Jake Locker is the most dynamic, but Carpenter is the best. The problem Carpenter has faced is a poor O-line giving up the most sacks in the conference of 55 last year. This shouldn't happen again, but there isn't a lot saying that they will be amazing. In addition to Carpenter, the top three receivers return, as well a potential RB stud Keegan Herring. (I think Keegan is a bit over-hyped, but we'll see.)
Dennis Erickson is a great coach and has notoriously had great second years with his collegiate teams. This plays into the Sun Devils favor.
The defense will be solid. Luis Vasquez and Dexter Davis are two of the best D-ends in the league. They will put pressure on the ball and force mistakes. The secondary is capable of taking advantage of these mistakes.
In Oregon's Favor
Here is the big one. Mike Bellotti holds a 12-1 record following a bye week. Oregon will be ready for this game. Last year after the bye week, Wazzu was hammered by the ducks. But this isn't Wazzu. This team will be in the top 25 and maybe higher if they manage to beat Georgia.
In the last three years against ASU, Oregon QBs have played very well and Jaison Williams has had his better games. Lets keep this trend up. Expect Chris Harper to be a part of this game plan. Chip Kelly will devise packages that won't have been seen before, involving Harper. I don't think Oregon
The D will have a game plan to put pressure on Carpenter. Carpenter will make plays, because that's what he does, but the Ducks have the returning sack leader from last year, Nick Reed. Will Tukuafu isn't too bad himself. And as mentioned over and over again, the secondary won't allow Carpenter to play pitch and catch with his receivers all day.
Big players, show up on big games.
Prediction: UO 34 - ASU 30
This one will be close. Big plays, momentum swings, mistakes and capitalizing. This may be the game that you remember all year long. If it weren't for the bye week I don't know if I could pick Oregon.
Give the game ball to Patrick Chung. For anyone who doesn't know who Patrick Chung is at this point in the season will know after this game.
7-1, 2nd in the PAC-10 and sneaking into the top 10 in the country.
Coming up Game 9 (vs Cal) and Game 10 (vs Stanford)...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol III)
Game 5
Time for conference play. The Ducks are already undefeated in conference after beating the Huskies, but now its Pac-10 foes the rest of the way. First up Washington State. This Coug team is rebuilding. There is a new coach and a new QB.
In Washington State's Favor
Though there is one bright spot, Brandon Gibson at WR. He is a game breaker. He had 1180 yards on 60 catches last year. Though he had Micheal Bumpus demanding attention on the other side. Expect him to see plenty of double teams. But with Paul Wuff's up-tempo offense he should be seeing more opportunities.
The Cougs have little to lose in this game. They will be underdogs by 17 points or more. They will have had a few games under their belt, but still trying to figure things out. That being said Coug teams of years past that seemed to be push-overs have given Oregon one hell of a time (except last year). Wazzu can't be overlooked. They will take some chances, but the ball in the air and try to tire out the Oregon D. The question is if they are talented enough to do this for four quarters.
In Oregon's Favor
Back in Pac-10 play there is a whole new focus. The Ducks saw the Pac-10 title in their grasps and it slipped away. There is no lack of confidence on this team and it is time to make that push to smell the roses. First test (second after UW), is the Cougs. There will have been some time to scout the Cougs and see what they are actually capable of. This game will be in Pullman, which always seems to be a tough place to play for Oregon.
Oregon's offense will be coming together at this point. Players will be in the rhythm of the season and getting up to speed. Oregon's offense will be able to role. Oregon's ground game is too strong and at this point, the passing game will be coming together nicely.
On defense, Brandon Gibson is walking into the lions den. He will be the focus. Thurmond, Byrd, Chung and Ward will be eying Gibson all game. He will have opportunities to show his abilities, but won't be able to take over the game. The defense of Oregon is too good for the offense of Washington State.
Prediction: UO 38 - WSU 17
Oregon will come out hard. After a sloppy 1st quarter against Boise State Bellotti got on their cases and demanded better. At half time the game will be nearly out of reach for Wazzu, forcing them to come out throwing in the second half. The Oregon secondary is going to have a field day, but let one slip late, to get the Cougs within three TD's.
Jeremiah Johnson is going to have a big day. I just have this feeling. 160 yards on the ground and 70 yards receiving with 2 total TD's.
Game 6
This is the big one. Oregon managed to not overlooked Wazzu in preparation for this game, but now it is time. USC, but this time in So Cal. The Trojans are looking for revenge of last years loss in Autzen and while boasting one of the best defenses in the country plan to make it happen.
In USC's Favor
USC has the best linebackers in the nation. Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing both will be all-americans and will be taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Hell Maualuga could be taken in the top 5. USC is dangerous. They have the talent to take chances, because there is always someone there backing them up. I expect the USC to come flying at Costa and JJ in the backfield, forcing rushed throws and some poor decisions.
On the other side of the ball, USC has a backfield full of blue chip recruits. They are looking for RB Joe McKnight to have a breakout season. He has been compared to Reggie Bush on numerous occasions. Between Sanchez and Mustain, the QB situation is solid, but there were times last year when Sanchez looked shaky. But this is his team now and with an entire off-season working with the offense, he will be fine. USC's defense will be good, but it is not what is going to win them a championship, that will be their defense.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon comes in 5-0. (I didn't say USC's record because I am not predicting that Ohio State game...I think Ohio State will win in a close one) This is going to be the biggest test of the season. Oregon's D has the ability to make the game very difficult for Sanchez and the rest of the Trojan offense. If Nick Reed can get pressure and the tackles can minimize mistakes and big play up the middle, then the Ducks can rely on their secondary, which is obviously the strength.
Oregon's offense is going to have a hard time getting going consistently against this D. USC is sold everywhere. Oregon has play makers, they just need to be patient and not force things. But with a young QB this will be hard. JJ will have to play well if Oregon wants to have a chance to win. Costa will have to play smart. Not mistake free, but limit opportunities to give USC chances.
Prediction: UO 17 - USC 24
Oregon's offense will struggle. USC is not going to let another game to the Ducks slip away. The USC D will be too much and after Oregon gets behind early, they will be forced to take chances against a defense that doesn't give up much.
This is going to be a great game. I think Jaison Williams is going to have a huge game in the national spotlight. 9 catches 150 yards and 1 TD. But what is going to be impressive about J-Will's game will be on a few occasions he will turn what looks to be a few yards short into a first down by using his strength and size to drag the defender a few extra yards.
Coming Up Next Game 7 (vs UCLA) and Game 8 (vs Arizona State).....
Time for conference play. The Ducks are already undefeated in conference after beating the Huskies, but now its Pac-10 foes the rest of the way. First up Washington State. This Coug team is rebuilding. There is a new coach and a new QB.
In Washington State's Favor
Though there is one bright spot, Brandon Gibson at WR. He is a game breaker. He had 1180 yards on 60 catches last year. Though he had Micheal Bumpus demanding attention on the other side. Expect him to see plenty of double teams. But with Paul Wuff's up-tempo offense he should be seeing more opportunities.
The Cougs have little to lose in this game. They will be underdogs by 17 points or more. They will have had a few games under their belt, but still trying to figure things out. That being said Coug teams of years past that seemed to be push-overs have given Oregon one hell of a time (except last year). Wazzu can't be overlooked. They will take some chances, but the ball in the air and try to tire out the Oregon D. The question is if they are talented enough to do this for four quarters.
In Oregon's Favor
Back in Pac-10 play there is a whole new focus. The Ducks saw the Pac-10 title in their grasps and it slipped away. There is no lack of confidence on this team and it is time to make that push to smell the roses. First test (second after UW), is the Cougs. There will have been some time to scout the Cougs and see what they are actually capable of. This game will be in Pullman, which always seems to be a tough place to play for Oregon.
Oregon's offense will be coming together at this point. Players will be in the rhythm of the season and getting up to speed. Oregon's offense will be able to role. Oregon's ground game is too strong and at this point, the passing game will be coming together nicely.
On defense, Brandon Gibson is walking into the lions den. He will be the focus. Thurmond, Byrd, Chung and Ward will be eying Gibson all game. He will have opportunities to show his abilities, but won't be able to take over the game. The defense of Oregon is too good for the offense of Washington State.
Prediction: UO 38 - WSU 17
Oregon will come out hard. After a sloppy 1st quarter against Boise State Bellotti got on their cases and demanded better. At half time the game will be nearly out of reach for Wazzu, forcing them to come out throwing in the second half. The Oregon secondary is going to have a field day, but let one slip late, to get the Cougs within three TD's.
Jeremiah Johnson is going to have a big day. I just have this feeling. 160 yards on the ground and 70 yards receiving with 2 total TD's.
Game 6
This is the big one. Oregon managed to not overlooked Wazzu in preparation for this game, but now it is time. USC, but this time in So Cal. The Trojans are looking for revenge of last years loss in Autzen and while boasting one of the best defenses in the country plan to make it happen.
In USC's Favor
USC has the best linebackers in the nation. Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing both will be all-americans and will be taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Hell Maualuga could be taken in the top 5. USC is dangerous. They have the talent to take chances, because there is always someone there backing them up. I expect the USC to come flying at Costa and JJ in the backfield, forcing rushed throws and some poor decisions.
On the other side of the ball, USC has a backfield full of blue chip recruits. They are looking for RB Joe McKnight to have a breakout season. He has been compared to Reggie Bush on numerous occasions. Between Sanchez and Mustain, the QB situation is solid, but there were times last year when Sanchez looked shaky. But this is his team now and with an entire off-season working with the offense, he will be fine. USC's defense will be good, but it is not what is going to win them a championship, that will be their defense.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon comes in 5-0. (I didn't say USC's record because I am not predicting that Ohio State game...I think Ohio State will win in a close one) This is going to be the biggest test of the season. Oregon's D has the ability to make the game very difficult for Sanchez and the rest of the Trojan offense. If Nick Reed can get pressure and the tackles can minimize mistakes and big play up the middle, then the Ducks can rely on their secondary, which is obviously the strength.
Oregon's offense is going to have a hard time getting going consistently against this D. USC is sold everywhere. Oregon has play makers, they just need to be patient and not force things. But with a young QB this will be hard. JJ will have to play well if Oregon wants to have a chance to win. Costa will have to play smart. Not mistake free, but limit opportunities to give USC chances.
Prediction: UO 17 - USC 24
Oregon's offense will struggle. USC is not going to let another game to the Ducks slip away. The USC D will be too much and after Oregon gets behind early, they will be forced to take chances against a defense that doesn't give up much.
This is going to be a great game. I think Jaison Williams is going to have a huge game in the national spotlight. 9 catches 150 yards and 1 TD. But what is going to be impressive about J-Will's game will be on a few occasions he will turn what looks to be a few yards short into a first down by using his strength and size to drag the defender a few extra yards.
Coming Up Next Game 7 (vs UCLA) and Game 8 (vs Arizona State).....
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol II)
Game 3
With the ducks now 2-0, Oregon hits the road to play Purdue. This will be a good out of conference test for Ducks. Purdue is rarely competing for the conference title, but they aren't letting people run over them, by any means.
In Purdue's Favor
Home field advantage is always helpful. But West Lafayette is no Eugene. And as I recall last year the Ducks played another Big - 10 teams in a stadium of over 100,000 and managed to beat them easily.
The key for Purdue will be their passing game led by Curtis Painter. He has been compared to Matt Ryan by some and is considered the second best NFL prospect for next years draft. The Ryan comparison comes partly from his high number of interceptions, from having to force throws with less talent around him. But Painter is good. He has a good chance of breaking nearly every Purdue passing record. If he had the players around him, he would be that much better. But he doesn't The recent ACL injury to their running back doesn't do them any favors either.
The moral of the story is, they have the potential to be dangerous, but just lack the overall talent to do so.
Oh and its another poor run defense unit. Translation: let Johnson loose.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon comes in hot. They have put up a lot of points in the first two weeks and are looking to repeat. Do to the poor Boilermaker run defense, the Ducks will again be able to simplify the game for the QB. Not to mention the secondary of Purdue is in the mediocre category. This being said, Oregon will run, run and run. But with Chip Kelly, there will be plenty of interesting plays to go around. Just like against Michigan, this is a chance to put Oregon on the national stage, with a nationally televised game against a BCS opponent.
Even though Purdue boasts a great QB, the secondary of the Ducks is fierce. Just as Painter likes to take chances, the Oregon secondary will take advantage of any mistakes that are made. (3 interceptions). And due to the fact that Purdue's best offense is no secret, the ducks will defend the pass, while using the LB's to force Painter into tough throws.
Prediction: UO 34 - Purdue 20
Not a blow out, but a 2 touchdown win isn't shabby. It will be a close game while they feel each other out, but in the 2nd quarter Oregon will put up 17 unanswered points and go into halftime with a 10 point lead.
Game 3
With the ducks now 2-0, Oregon hits the road to play Purdue. This will be a good out of conference test for Ducks. Purdue is rarely competing for the conference title, but they aren't letting people run over them, by any means.
In Purdue's Favor
Home field advantage is always helpful. But West Lafayette is no Eugene. And as I recall last year the Ducks played another Big - 10 teams in a stadium of over 100,000 and managed to beat them easily.
The key for Purdue will be their passing game led by Curtis Painter. He has been compared to Matt Ryan by some and is considered the second best NFL prospect for next years draft. The Ryan comparison comes partly from his high number of interceptions, from having to force throws with less talent around him. But Painter is good. He has a good chance of breaking nearly every Purdue passing record. If he had the players around him, he would be that much better. But he doesn't The recent ACL injury to their running back doesn't do them any favors either.
The moral of the story is, they have the potential to be dangerous, but just lack the overall talent to do so.
Oh and its another poor run defense unit. Translation: let Johnson loose.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon comes in hot. They have put up a lot of points in the first two weeks and are looking to repeat. Do to the poor Boilermaker run defense, the Ducks will again be able to simplify the game for the QB. Not to mention the secondary of Purdue is in the mediocre category. This being said, Oregon will run, run and run. But with Chip Kelly, there will be plenty of interesting plays to go around. Just like against Michigan, this is a chance to put Oregon on the national stage, with a nationally televised game against a BCS opponent.
Even though Purdue boasts a great QB, the secondary of the Ducks is fierce. Just as Painter likes to take chances, the Oregon secondary will take advantage of any mistakes that are made. (3 interceptions). And due to the fact that Purdue's best offense is no secret, the ducks will defend the pass, while using the LB's to force Painter into tough throws.
Prediction: UO 34 - Purdue 20
Not a blow out, but a 2 touchdown win isn't shabby. It will be a close game while they feel each other out, but in the 2nd quarter Oregon will put up 17 unanswered points and go into halftime with a 10 point lead.
Game 3
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Never too early for some predictions (Vol I)
Game 1
Bring on those hated Huskies. I don't know if there is a better way to start the season. With all the hype of the first game, combined with the despise of the Puppies from the north, Autzen will be at it's finest.
In Washington's Favor
There is no real secret to this game. There are two factors that favor Washington. First, assuming Locker is healthy, he is the best player in the Pac-10 and will challenge the ducks. But beyond Locker, there is little that should really strike fear into Oregon. With new faces on the UW o-line, this will be a good way for Linehan, Harris and the rest of the d-line to shake off the rust.
The second factor is the emotion that surrounds this game. Willingham has everything to lose this year and if he can start out with a win against the rival Ducks, it will be a tremendous start to the season. All the players wearing PURPLE are aware of this rivalry and will be putting their best foot forward. But beyond these two, they need to hope that everything goes right for them and that the new QB for the Ducks struggles to start the season.
In Oregon's Favor
When looking at this game, there are four factors that play to the Ducks advantage. The first two, go together somewhat. The game is in Autzen and its against the Huskies. This will be key to make the young Dawgs nervous and play the game into Oregon's favor. Autzen will be rocking.
The third factor is the ability to simplify the game for the Oregon QB (more likely than not Costa). Washington gave up 465 rushing yards to the Ducks. The Huskies will bring the same mediocrity to the field on Aug. 30. I don't think records will be broken, but 300 yards on the ground is very doable. Having this type of rushing attack eases the QB play. Make the game simple. UW will have to focus on the running game. Keeping extra men in the box, bringing up safeties, etc. This leaves one-on-one situations. J-Will can dominate these situations. This makes life easier for Costa and his receiving core.
This final factor is ability to focus on Locker on D. That being said, even with the focus on Locker, he will still be dominate. The key is to keep his dominance to a minimum. Make him throw, so that he needs the help of his receivers. Don't let him run all over, but don't give up too much deep. It sounds more complicated than it is. Locker will keep this game from being a shut-out, but he only plays on one side of the ball and UW doesn't have enough on the other to keep up.
Prediction: UO 45 - UW 27
Close early. Oregon puts the pressure on starting the second half to take a commanding lead. Then coasts on to the finish, while the Pups put 10 points on the board in the 4th.
Game 2
Another home game and this time it's Utah State. This will be nothing more than a tune up game. Utah State is notoriously in the bottom of the barrel. There may be moments where Oregon gets lackadaisical, but that'll be nothing more than a reminder to stay focused.
In Utah State's Favor
They have nothing to lose. And that is about it. The Aggies come into Autzen with low expectations. Their goal should be to put up 14 points and anything beyond that be a moral victory. This won't help them in conference, it won't help their chances of making a bowl game, it won't help them from being Mormon.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon can except nothing less than a blow out. Every year some game is scheduled that should be a blow out, but ends up being close or even a monumental upset. (my cousin can attest to that). This cannot be one.
Oregon comes in the heavy favorite. This is a game to get those players who don't see the field as often a chance to play in a game. Get those players up to game speed, experience the energy and pressure of a real game experience.
I have a feeling that all three QB's, Costa, Roper and Harper will get a chance to play, which is just what Oregon needs. Harper needs a chance to learn the game and feel that pressure. If you are going to screw up, let it happen in this game. Not against ASU, USC, Cal or OSU. Let the back ups see the field. As the season goes on depth is so important. Bellotti knows this and will get his players on the field. (but don't burn a redshirt year)
Prediction: UO 44 - Utah State 13
I am going to predict a big game from Harper. I see him hitting the field through out the game and then leading 2 - 3 series in the 3rd and 4th quarters. We'll get a chance to see what this guy can do.
The usual suspects will play well, but once the score gets out of reach expect many key players to be taken out to avoid unnecessary injuries. This will be a fun one to watch.
Coming up next Game 3 (vs Purdue) and Week 4 (vs Boise State)........
Bring on those hated Huskies. I don't know if there is a better way to start the season. With all the hype of the first game, combined with the despise of the Puppies from the north, Autzen will be at it's finest.
In Washington's Favor
There is no real secret to this game. There are two factors that favor Washington. First, assuming Locker is healthy, he is the best player in the Pac-10 and will challenge the ducks. But beyond Locker, there is little that should really strike fear into Oregon. With new faces on the UW o-line, this will be a good way for Linehan, Harris and the rest of the d-line to shake off the rust.
The second factor is the emotion that surrounds this game. Willingham has everything to lose this year and if he can start out with a win against the rival Ducks, it will be a tremendous start to the season. All the players wearing PURPLE are aware of this rivalry and will be putting their best foot forward. But beyond these two, they need to hope that everything goes right for them and that the new QB for the Ducks struggles to start the season.
In Oregon's Favor
When looking at this game, there are four factors that play to the Ducks advantage. The first two, go together somewhat. The game is in Autzen and its against the Huskies. This will be key to make the young Dawgs nervous and play the game into Oregon's favor. Autzen will be rocking.
The third factor is the ability to simplify the game for the Oregon QB (more likely than not Costa). Washington gave up 465 rushing yards to the Ducks. The Huskies will bring the same mediocrity to the field on Aug. 30. I don't think records will be broken, but 300 yards on the ground is very doable. Having this type of rushing attack eases the QB play. Make the game simple. UW will have to focus on the running game. Keeping extra men in the box, bringing up safeties, etc. This leaves one-on-one situations. J-Will can dominate these situations. This makes life easier for Costa and his receiving core.
This final factor is ability to focus on Locker on D. That being said, even with the focus on Locker, he will still be dominate. The key is to keep his dominance to a minimum. Make him throw, so that he needs the help of his receivers. Don't let him run all over, but don't give up too much deep. It sounds more complicated than it is. Locker will keep this game from being a shut-out, but he only plays on one side of the ball and UW doesn't have enough on the other to keep up.
Prediction: UO 45 - UW 27
Close early. Oregon puts the pressure on starting the second half to take a commanding lead. Then coasts on to the finish, while the Pups put 10 points on the board in the 4th.
Game 2
Another home game and this time it's Utah State. This will be nothing more than a tune up game. Utah State is notoriously in the bottom of the barrel. There may be moments where Oregon gets lackadaisical, but that'll be nothing more than a reminder to stay focused.
In Utah State's Favor
They have nothing to lose. And that is about it. The Aggies come into Autzen with low expectations. Their goal should be to put up 14 points and anything beyond that be a moral victory. This won't help them in conference, it won't help their chances of making a bowl game, it won't help them from being Mormon.
In Oregon's Favor
Oregon can except nothing less than a blow out. Every year some game is scheduled that should be a blow out, but ends up being close or even a monumental upset. (my cousin can attest to that). This cannot be one.
Oregon comes in the heavy favorite. This is a game to get those players who don't see the field as often a chance to play in a game. Get those players up to game speed, experience the energy and pressure of a real game experience.
I have a feeling that all three QB's, Costa, Roper and Harper will get a chance to play, which is just what Oregon needs. Harper needs a chance to learn the game and feel that pressure. If you are going to screw up, let it happen in this game. Not against ASU, USC, Cal or OSU. Let the back ups see the field. As the season goes on depth is so important. Bellotti knows this and will get his players on the field. (but don't burn a redshirt year)
Prediction: UO 44 - Utah State 13
I am going to predict a big game from Harper. I see him hitting the field through out the game and then leading 2 - 3 series in the 3rd and 4th quarters. We'll get a chance to see what this guy can do.
The usual suspects will play well, but once the score gets out of reach expect many key players to be taken out to avoid unnecessary injuries. This will be a fun one to watch.
Coming up next Game 3 (vs Purdue) and Week 4 (vs Boise State)........
Friday, August 8, 2008
They're so Beautiful
To some this post will sound pathetic, but to many, they will understand exactly how they I felt.
It’s the experience Mothers and Father have watching their first child come into the world. Words can't explain the joy in that moment. Or those Christmas mornings as a child when you run down the stairs to see the tree surrounded by presents and the excitement that fills your body. It’s also like receiving your college diploma and that feeling of "I have finally made it." (I didn't really have that sensation, but I think you're supposed to.) But that's what I felt when I ripped open the UPS package to find my first set of Oregon Duck football season tickets.
During college I had waited in line for hours to get tickets to games and there was always a sense of achievement. Overcoming boredom, battling patience and having to skip the occasional class, were the sacrifices that needed to be made. But being the proud owner/holder of season tickets is amazing. I didn't want to fold the edges or separate the tickets and ruin that perfect sheet. The site of Matt Evenson, Max Unger, Patrick Chung, Jarius Byrd, J-Will, Walter Thurmond and Nick Reed was amazing. It was like being reunited with your family.
These are special moments you always remember; the moments that you tell your children about. (Boys or girls my kids will love and cherish Ducks football).
It’s not an obsession. It’s a way of Life. Go Ducks! And hurry up August 30th. We need to put a hurting on those Pound Puppies from up north.
~Berns
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