Thursday, November 20, 2008

There is Still a Lot of Season Left

With the bye week the anticipation builds. Only one regular season game left, but still so much on the line. That’s the beauty of college football. One week can make or break a season, especially in a rivalry game.

Duck fans are waiting patiently for November 29. The focus is on the Civil War. No other games matter anymore. We’ve played ourselves into this position and now there are only 60 minutes of football left to decide our bowling (post-season) fate.

It’s hard to look at the year and feel complete satisfaction. The “what ifs” are in the back of every fans mind and the wonder of what position we would be in if we got the right bounces, avoided injuries or hung onto more footballs, but again that’s college football. You never know what one play can do to a 13 game season. As hard as it is to not think those “what if” thoughts, we should be pleased with what our team has accomplished.

The Ducks came into this season with high expectations, even though we had minimal experience at QB, only to have the experience we did have taken away by injuries. The defense at times hasn’t played up to the high standards set for them to start the season by fans and the media. But here we are, potentially two games away from tying the second best season for wins in Oregon history. It is hard to not see that as a success. No matter what happens this season has taught the fans and more importantly the young players a lot. Unexpected stars were given their moments to shine and expected leaders stepped up to keep the team moving forward.

This weekend, every Duck fan will have their eyes and ears open towards what is happening in Tucson. And there are certainly mixed feelings on the desired out come of the game between the Oregon State beavers and the Arizona Wildcats.

For some, they want it to be Oregon who knocks the Beavs off their high horse in the Civil War. Others want to see the smell of roses turn to that of mulch in the Arizona night, only have a chance to rub in one more loss, knocking the Beavs even further down the Pac-10 food chain.

So much is dependent on what happens in this weekend’s game. Hey, if everything happens just right the Ducks could be the ones in Pasadena at seasons end. But don’t hold your breath. What we do know, is no matter what happens, next weekend is now our biggest game of the season.

The Beavs are the media darlings of the Pac-10, on their way to potentially a season to remember. A stud true freshman and an underrated defense have helped lead this team from an ugly first loss to thoughts of a first Rose Bowl appearance in 40+ years nearing a reality.

Let the Beaver fans bask in their current limelight. Don’t fire back at all the trolls that patrol the Duck blogs and forums, who merely just try to get a rise out of us. Be the bigger person here. Congratulate them on their season so far. Tell them you’ll be cheering them on against Arizona (even if you aren’t). You don’t have to wear black and orange or even give a “go beavs,” but just show the courtesy, that Beaver fans don’t, because next weekend it is going to feel that much sweeter to rub it in their faces when the Ducks bring the Beavs back down to earth and send the OSU faithful canceling their holiday trips to Disneyland and rescheduling their flights to San Francisco and the Emerald Bowl.

There is still a lot of season left.

Go Ducks!

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Beating Arizona is the First Step Towards a Strong Finish

There are three games left in the season and each one holds its own individual importance.

1. There is a feeling of revenge going into the game against Arizona after last years loss (and loss of Dennis Dixon from a torn ACL).
2. The game against Oregon State always has the hype, with bragging rights for the upcoming year.
3. And then whatever bowl and against whatever team, there is always pride on the line. Pride for your conference, your team and your season while playing on a national stage.

Even though each game has it's own story line, each game will greatly dictate what happens in the next game.

We all know about the late season collapses of the past. A loss to Arizona would is not what Oregon needs. The Ducks must have momentum going into their rivalry game with Oregon State, as the Beavs have everything to play for and the Rose Bowl in their sites. There is no time to let down with only three games left. This season is far from being a loss, but if the Ducks don't show up Saturday, a potential 10-3 season could turn to a 7-6 season.

First Order of Business: Arizona
Oregon has not had success against Arizona in the past three years.
  • 2007: Lost the game and lost Dixon for the remainder of the season.
  • 2006: Lost in Autzen Stadium as part of the downward spiral to a blowout loss in the Las Vegas bowl to BYU.
  • 2005: Won a close game, but loss Kellen Clemens to a broken foot.
This is not the Arizona team of the past. This team will, actually be playing in a post season game. This Arizona team has a balanced offense led by four talented players. Quarterback Willie Tuitama, running back Nic Grigsby, wide receiver Mike Thomas and tight end Rob Gronkowski. These four players have helped Arizona become the top scoring team in the conference at just under 40 points a game. On the other side of the ball deserves respect too. This Zona defense also held USC to only 17 points.

But this game is not as much what Arizona brings, but what Oregon team shows up. Any given Saturday, you can have a Ducks team that scores 50+ points and blows out it opponent or you can have a team that only manages 16 points, even while causing 5 turnovers.

What Ducks team will we see?

The home field advantage is key in this match up and gives Oregon the edge. Players will be excited to play in front of the home crowd for the last time this season. Everyone will want to make their mark, especially those seniors who have given so much to this program.

We need to support this team. The first poorly thrown ball or the first decision to run instead of pass, does not mean it is time to boo. Remember the guy you are booing led the winning drive against Stanford, despite the thousands of fans against him.

I have a feeling this is going to be a great final game for our Seniors.

Thank you to all the Seniors and good luck to whatever you do next.






Monday, November 10, 2008

Work with what we got!

Down to the Wire
Two wet ones in a row. IT NEVER RAINS IN AUTZEN held true for a few brief moments in the second quarter as the sun came out. After halftime the rain was back. First Cal, then Stanford.

The weather wasn't the only thing sloppy about this game. Oregon's play was at times careless and hard to watch. Fumbles, poor execution and inconsistency plagued the Ducks. It was as if Oregon was doing everything they could to keep Stanford in the game. That being said, they managed to pull out a win.

Oregon had to drive the length of the field in slightly more than 2 minutes. Masoli completed 3 of 6 passes, but it was his 25 yard run on 3rd and 8 that made saved the game. A few plays later it was LeGarrett Blount running the ball in for 6. It was an exciting win after a sloppy game. A few fans ran onto the field to celebrate the last drive heroics, but most fans merely walked out of the stadium relieved to have won, frustrated by a team that hasn't met expectations.

High Expectations
7-3! We have 7 wins. We could end up with 10 wins. As far as I am concerned that is a good year. Now, before I get ahead of myself we still need to win out to get to 10, but even if we win 2 or even just 1, its a winning season while dealing with all of the QB problems we have had.

Oregon fans have high expectations for their teams and they should. Oregon has had great talent at the program. Top facilities and nationally recognized recruiting classes. This hasn't brought a national championship or even numerous Pac-10 championships, but Oregon is always considered competitive. Last year spoiled Duck fans. Everyone tasted what it felt like to be at the top, close to a national championship and a Heisman winner. Only to have it taken away by a torn ACL.

A season later with out Dennis Dixon or Jonathan Stewart, Oregon isn't living up to the high expectations set. But should they? The Ducks have dealt with numerous quarterback issues. Pre-season projected starter Nate Costa never made it to the first game. Sun Bowl hero Justin Roper didn't have the desired mobility and was injured in the third game. JC transfer Jeremiah Masoli was knocked out in the first drive against Boise State. True freshman Chris Harper has the legs, but lacks the arm and was promptly moved to WR. Lastly, true freshman Darron Thomas was supposed to redshirt, only to burn it in a late 4th quarter comeback attempt.

Bringing us to where we are. Jeremiah Masoli has started the majority of the games for Oregon. He has had moment of brilliance and times where his decision making are questioned. But on Saturday, it became clear how Oregon fans feel about inconsistent play. In the first quarter Masoli was boo'd after miss reads or poor passes or not staying in the pocket. Fine. Those are reasons to be frustrated. There were moments when he was boo'd for running instead of passing or boo'd for passing instead of running. Ok? Now its becoming clear. Dennis Dixon was the perfection of a Oregon QB. Masoli is a ways away from being that at this point. But let me point out that he is a sophmore. Remember where Dixon was as a Junior? Those same boo-birds were out. Settle down. This season is not lost, but its not the one you are going to be telling your kids about 20 years down the road. We still have plenty to play for and should be pleased with the season we have with the inexperience at QB.

That brings me to my final thought. Oregon has been known as a great passing team, making this season statistically one of the worse in the past decade. But look at the running numbers. We lead the nation in rushing TD's. I know that people want Roper, because he is a better passer and will help "balance" the offense, even though he is not the running threat that Masoli can be. But Roper is the wrong decision.

Let me explain. First, Mike Belotti gets paid a lot of money to make this decision. He is the one who choose Dixon over Leaf, Clemens over Jason Fife, Joey Harrington over AJ Feely. Get my point? He knows what he is doing. Second, the strength of Oregon's offense is their running attack. In the spread offense, Masoli is more of a threat to run, making the defense have to pay attention to him during the hand off. If Masoli keeps it he can hurt the D, whereas is Roper is in, you only need to key in on Johnson or Blount, making the "one-dimensional" offense even more so. Masoli is a capable passer. 11-21, 144 yards with 1 TD is a respectable game. I know most of these yards come after the catch, but he gets the ball to play makers. He could've easily had a second TD, if not for a dropped pass. The point is Masoli is a gamer. He took the game into his hands and won it for Oregon. He used his skills and strengths to take the Ducks the length of the field and win. I'll take it.

It's not time to start thinking of next season. We have a lot to play for still and need to be proud of what we have done. Don't just be a fan, be a supporter of the Ducks. It's easy to forget they are kids, playing as hard as they can for a respected program. It will come, we just need to take a step back and calm down. We'll be OK.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Make or Break the Season?

I've neglected the blog lately. So I need to do a little catch up.

I was present for the game in Berkley. It was wet and it was hard to watch. I will always defend the Ducks, but will also know when we aren't playing up to the standards that have been set. In the past decade, these expectations have been high. (Which seems to be the fire behind many Beaver fans comments).

The game was sloppy from both teams offenses. Cal couldn't hold onto the ball in the first half. There were four first half fumbles and Oregon couldn't capitalize on these turnovers. This was due to the one dimensional offense the Ducks have developed. I don't believe this is because Masoli can't pass, but rather he doesn't fully trust himself yet. He gets happy feet and is looking to leave the pocket before the pressure is there. He does a great job breaking a couple of tackles and buying himself some time, but the problem is two-fold. He isn't finding receivers down field and the receivers seem to struggle at finding open space. This has resulted in forced runs, which against UCLA worked great, but against Cal's fast 3-4 defense he was not able to create. This has made Oregon very one-dimensional. Jeremiah Johnson and Legarrette Blount have been outstanding this season. They have taken the team and carried them to six wins this season. But the Ducks have lost all three games against teams with winning records. This will against be challenged this weekend against Stanford.

What I need to point out from the Cal game was the stellar play by the defense. Jahvid Best did get loose for some big runs, but he is an exceptionally explosive runner. There were some plays where the play calling was questionable and executing wasn't great, but Oregon's defense was what kept this game from being a blowout. TJ Ward specifically. This was one of the most dominant games by a defensive player I have ever seen from an Oregon player. He was all over the field. Defending the pass, stopping the run and getting the ball back to the Oregon offense. Nick Reed also played well, but this is now expected.

There were plenty of plays that could've swung the game the other way. A questionable pass interference, a muffed punt and missed field goals. But that is college football. The same things happen to Cal and it's Oregon's game to win.

This is Oregon's chance to look themselves in the mirror and decide if this is now a wasted season and they will settle for the emerald bowl, hopefully get a win against a marginal team and end the season 8-5. Or they can decide that they are going to play the spoilers. Anything can happen in the Pac - 10 and the holiday bowl is still in reach. USC had two losses in the Pac-10 last year and went to the Rose Bowl. Anything can happen. Injuries, sleeping on a lesser team or just getting out played can swing a season.

For the seniors, Jaison Williams, Max Unger, Patrick Chung, JJ, and Nick Reed, they need to take the rest of the season as an interview. Are these guys winners? Are these guys football players? Can they dominate at the collegiate level?

This list of five players can take the Ducks, win out and end the season 10-3. To me, that is a great season. That is a season you hang your hat on and will put you into the top 25.

Stanford will be a great test to see where the Ducks are at. If they have the character and desire to not give up on a season that feels lost and turn it into something special. Stanford has a great running game. But Oregon can stop the run. Stanford is marginal in the air and the Ducks have been suspect against he pass. Stanford's D gives up the pass and aren't a juggernaut against the run. Looking at the stats, this seems like Oregon's game to win.

This is what needs to happen. Oregon has to score first. They need to score, score and score. If they can get a two TD lead, they will win. Stanford will not come back with their air game, but will keep a lead with their ground game. This will be greatly dictated on the play of Cole Linehan and Sonny Harris. Casey Matthews is strong against he run, but if these two can fill up lanes, the speed a LB for the Ducks can do their best to contain and slow the running attack.

My prediction for this game: Oregon 40 - Stanford 24

Oregon is up 21-10 in the first half. Stanford scores on their first drive to get the game close. Oregon scores 19 unanswered points. Stanford gets one more score in garbage time, but the game never feels close. Oh and it is supposed to rain in Eugene on Saturday. But IT NEVER RAINS IN AUTZEN.

Go Ducks.

- Berns